Jenner, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS66 KMTR 170808
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
108 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026


 - Cooler temperatures through Thursday

 - Warming trend Friday into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery once again shows stratus hugging portions of
the coast and beginning to move inland. As noted in the evening
update, this isn`t a classic marine layer. It has a more strato-cu
vibe due to the proximity of cold upper level low near Pt Arena.
Do expect stratus to eventually fill in along a majority of the
coast by sunrise. The lower heights aloft have also allowed the
cloud deck to deepen 2500-3000 ft per profilers and ACARs
sounding. Given the nearby low,onshore flow, and deep layer
drizzle remains in the forecast as well.

Outside of drizzle chances - similar to yesterday the main
weather highlights for today will be below normal temperatures and
gusty onshore flow. Generally speaking - max temps today will be a
few warmer than yesterday, but still below seasonal averages.
Highs will top out in the 60s to near 70 along the coast and 70s
to mid 80s interior. Onshore gradients aren`t overly impressive
overnight, but still seeing some gusts 30-45 mph for the Delta and
E Bay Hills. These gusty conditions will lingering through the
early morning hours before easing through the afternoon/evening
hours.

Thursday night: the upper low begins to lose its grip on the Bay
Area as it slowly moves to the northeast. Behind the departing
low shortwave ridging builds. A more classic marine layer will
develop with solid stratus along the coast and inland valleys.
Cannot rule out some patchy drizzle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)

Friday will be a transition day as the upper low fully exits to
the northeast and shortwave ridging builds overhead. Once the
morning marine layer rolls back to the coast a marked warming
trend will develop to kick off the weekend. 5-10 degrees of
warming are expected. The warming trend will continue through
Saturday with temperatures reaching above normal by Saturday. A
few low 90s will return Saturday afternoon across the interior
Central Coast. Temperatures will also get a boost on Saturday
with a few bursts of offshore flow. Nothing overly strong, but a
switch nonetheless. Offshore winds will be most realized over the
higher terrain of the N and E Bay. The warm up will be short-lived
as the ridge gets replaced by yet another upper low moving in from
the west on Sunday. Marine layer will likely deepen and
temperatures cool 5-10 degrees.

Monday and beyond is still on the lower end of confidence.
Tonight`s 00Z model suite is starting to show a roller coaster of
temps next week. A slight warming up and then a slight cool down.
Uncertainty on the shoulder seasons is actually pretty common.
Cluster analysis doesn`t provide a lot of additional clarity
except that models are split. Not expecting rain per se the
uncertainty is around temperatures.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR. Transient TAF period on tap
thanks to an upper-level low to our north that is mixing up the
environment. As a result, ceilings on the cusp of MVFR/low-end VFR
are expected through tomorrow morning for most terminals. Drizzle
will lower ceilings and visibilities; the best chances are in the
Bay Area with chances diminishing southward. Diurnal winds will
prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow. Transient
TAF period on tap with clouds on the cusp of MVFR/VFR expected
through tomorrow morning. Drizzle will be possible overnight,
resulting in a lower ceiling/visibility. Diurnal winds will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely
not be as impacted as SFO; however, clouds at or below FL055
should be expected in the vicinity through tomorrow morning with a
chance that they linger into the afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR with southwesterly flow at SNS. Once stratus reaches the
terminals, MVFR conditions will likely prevail through the morning.
Lower probability for drizzle, but if it occurs, lower ceilings and
visibilities are expected. VFR is expected by late-morning. Diurnal
winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Conditions will improve tonight as northwesterly breezes diminish
to  become gentle to moderate. Hazardous conditions for small
craft will  return Friday into the weekend due to fresh to strong
northwesterly  breezes. Slight to moderate seas will prevail
through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 412 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A passing trough is allowing the marine layer to expand with the
depth estimated around 2000-2500 feet in the area around the Timber
and Plaskett Fires. Above the marine layer inversion, humidities
remain low with relative humidity values as low as 15% observed. The
trend for deeper marine layers is expected to continue into Friday,
with humidities in higher elevations expected to rise as a result.
Some nocturnal drying is possible in the highest peaks, but minimal
coverage is expected.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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